At Wisconsin's current flat residential rates, electric heat pump heating costs 1.5–1.9× more than natural gas. But at off-peak TOU rates already available for EV charging, heat pumps reach gas parity. The rate architecture exists. It just hasn't been built for heating.
Flat residential rates vs. gas ($/MMBtu, COP 3.0)
1.5–1.9×
Heat pump cost relative to gas at flat residential rates. WPSC Rg-1: $14.47/MMBtu. WE Rg1: $18.89/MMBtu. Gas: ~$10.00/MMBtu effective (90% AFUE). Every flat rate is above gas parity.
Existing off-peak TOU rates vs. gas ($/MMBtu, COP 3.0)
$6.08
Cost at WPSC COEV-R winter off-peak ($0.062/kWh). This rate is 32% below gas — but it only exists for EV chargers. No heat pump equivalent.
The off-peak EV charging rate proves the price point is achievable. WPSC's COEV-R winter off-peak of $0.062/kWh delivers heat pump heating at $6.08/MMBtu — well below gas parity. But this rate is restricted to separately-metered EV chargers.
$/MMBtu = (electric rate ÷ COP) × 293.07. All heat pump scenarios: seasonal COP 3.0. Gas furnace: 90% AFUE at ~$9/MMBtu delivered = ~$10/MMBtu effective.
Sources: WPSC Rg-1 ($0.14802/kWh) — PSCW Vol. 7, Sheet E5.00, Order 6690-UR-128. WE Rg1 ($0.19342/kWh) — WE 2026 Brochure, p.3. Rg-RR off-peak ($0.07518) — Sheet E5.60. Rg5-OTOU off-peak ($0.08353) — Sheet E5.50. COEV-R winter off-peak ($0.06223) — Sheet E13.01. WE Rg2 off-peak ($0.10028) — WE brochure p.3. Gas ~$9/MMBtu — approx. WI residential delivered cost.