At current pace, no state completes LMI electrification this century
Each state's annual LMI delivery throughput measured against its known eligible population reveals the same pattern: programs serve thousands while hundreds of thousands wait. The delivery infrastructure operates at a fraction of the scale the problem requires.
Annual LI throughput (current pace)
Estimated LI need (eligible population)
Annual LMI program throughput vs. estimated need
VermontFuel switch program
61/yr26,160 LIHEAP clients
429 yrsat current pace
MassachusettsLI heat pumps (~9% of total)
~2,700/yr~480,000 LI households
178 yrsat current pace
PennsylvaniaLIURP weatherization
17,242/yr574,193 eligible not enrolled
33 yrsjust weatherization
MichiganHP adoption
<1% HP75% of homes on gas
∞no LI HP program exists
WisconsinHOMES/HEAR rebates
Just launchedRate architecture blocks economics
—too early to measure
No state in the five-state evidence base has achieved large-scale LMI gas-to-electric conversion with positive bill outcomes. The programs serve thousands. The need is hundreds of thousands. The gap is not closing — it is widening as cheap efficiency measures are exhausted and per-participant savings decline.
Each state uses different program architecture — socialized surcharge (MI), beneficiary-pays (PA), statewide efficiency utility (VT), mature program ecosystem (MA), federal rebates (WI). All five fail at the same point: converting LMI homes from gas/oil to electric heat at positive bill outcomes. The failure is structural, not programmatic.
Sources: VT 61 completions / 26,160 LIHEAP — EVT 2024 Annual Report + VT Equity Advisory Group, Docket 25-0443-INV. MA ~2,700 LI HPs (~9% of planned total) — EEAC C-Team, Slide 21; LI household estimate (~480,000) derived from Census ACS 2023 (~17% of 2.87M MA occupied HH at ≤60% SMI eligibility threshold, approximate). PA 17,242 LIURP jobs / 574,193 gap — BCS Universal Service Report 2022. MI <1% HP / 75% gas — MPSC 2025 Annual Report, NV5/Slipstream Potential Study Vol V. WI HOMES/HEAR — CEP 2025 Progress Report. Note: MA LI household count (~480,000) is estimated from Census ACS data and should be verified against Mass Save's own eligibility universe. PA's 33-year figure is for weatherization only, not electrification.